I think of the McCain campaign driving down a dark, curvey highway in winter when:

1) They realize they have hit a long patch of black ice and
2) Their campaign bus is pointed in the general direction of a huge tree

I think that the natural initial reaction is to let adrenaline go to work but to try to finess the steering to get past that tree. But as the tree gets closer I think there is a major urge to try more desperate maneuvers.

McCain in late September: "I have full faith in Sarah Palin and in discussions this week I implored her to reconsider, but Governor Palin's highest calling is to ensure the well-being of her hockey team...errrr,... FAMILY. I am grateful for Governor X's willingness to step in and answer the call of his John McCain...errr...COUNTRY!"

I think the "family first" aspect of Palin's withdrawal (she'll be the one to take the decision at least for our consumption) will still play great with the evangelicals and McCain will still have some residual bonus point for naming her. Now he just needs to identify his not-too-pro-choice alternate.

(edit: I realized that I have *been* to Wasilla. Filled up there.)