The amount of heat you lose depends entirely on the difference in temperature between your house (the heat source) and the outside (the heat sink). [...] It is temperature differential and nothing else that determines heat loss.
Sorry, but I don't buy this. If this were true, it would be no use at all to insulate your house.
Right, what determines heat loss is temperature differential
and quality of insulation ("thermal resistance")
and total exterior wall area. But when evaluating different thermostat/timer regimens for the same house, the latter two of course remain constant, so only the first needs to be considered.
Peter