What is your favorite meltdown scenario?

Posted by: pgrzelak

What is your favorite meltdown scenario? - 22/10/2005 17:09

Greetings!

Just because I am in such a good mood today...

Please choose:
Posted by: pgrzelak

Re: What is your favorite meltdown scenario? - 22/10/2005 17:19

Note: Any one item on this list can cause a cascade triggering some or all of the others. Looking for a "first cause" here...
Posted by: peter

Re: What is your favorite meltdown scenario? - 22/10/2005 17:21

I think Meteor Impact would make for the best television, but you've got to hand it to Avian Flu for sheer cultural sensitivity. What other horseman of the Apocalypse would come to Britain, the home of Monty Python, as a dead parrot?

Peter
Posted by: Robotic

Re: What is your favorite meltdown scenario? - 22/10/2005 17:55

Ugh.
I'm not voting.

/sticks head back in sand.
Posted by: TigerJimmy

Re: What is your favorite meltdown scenario? - 22/10/2005 18:11

I picked overpopulation, because this is a first cause of many of the rest, such as pollution, global warming, etc.

If you want to worry, you've got to think about disease (not on your list). Particularly an airborne-contageous and deadly virus -- like an air spread HIV. A deadly antibiotic-reisistant bacterial pandemic (think antibotic-resistant plague) is another likely event.

Farmers have known for a long time that large monoculture ecosystems are extremely vulnerable to disease, because there is no biodiversity. We "control" that with nasty chemicals that we spray on crops or feed to livestock.

Nobody seems to discuss that human beings in large cities are essentially the same situation.

Jim
Posted by: pgrzelak

Re: What is your favorite meltdown scenario? - 22/10/2005 18:52

Well, pandemic is there, so disease is well covered as long as it is of global proportion.

I actually chose "other". After submitting the survey, I realized that stupidity (elected, oblivious, manipulated, etc.) is as dangerous as all of the others.

Note: This was just a reaction to the continued headlines on all of the major news sites, not that I think the world is going to end tomorrow. Still, it would be a good day for it...
Posted by: TigerJimmy

Re: What is your favorite meltdown scenario? - 22/10/2005 23:15

Huh. So it is. That makes me feel pretty stupid. Well, that's my scenario: pandemic fueled by overpopulation.

Jim
Posted by: JBjorgen

Re: What is your favorite meltdown scenario? - 23/10/2005 00:11

You forgot "Seven-year tribulation followed by earth's destruction by fire" and "Giant mutant CowboyNeal"

Although the "Other horsemen" options does partially cover the former. I voted that one.
Posted by: FireFox31

Re: What is your favorite meltdown scenario? - 23/10/2005 00:22

Perhaps these aren't meltdown scenarios, but you left off some of my personal favorites:

Alien invasion. Either short term (ie: "I regret to inform you... your planet has been scheduled for demolition. Have a nice day.") or long term (ie: failed political relationship with alien beings leading to war).

AI robotic revolution. With humanity's instinctive insatiable greed, they will repeat the history of slavery, but this time, with captives of immense ability.

My third favorite is a tie between overpopulation and pandemic, so I chose pandemic. I'd much rather see the "oh high and mighty human race" be crushed not by its own weight, but by simple multicellular organisims invisible to the naked eye... and by the foolish human politics which would prevent a cure from becoming available soon enough (up for a game of Deus Ex anyone?)

Another meltdown scenario, not in my list of favorites, but has almost happened enough times in our history:

Accident - Oops, mismanaged the nuclear reactor and started a chain reaction. Oops, left the outside air vent open while working with that 1918 flu virus. Oops, pushed a little to hard while cleaning the cheese stake stain off The Big Red Button. Bye bye world.
Posted by: TigerJimmy

Re: What is your favorite meltdown scenario? - 23/10/2005 03:10

Nuclear accidents are horrific, but at least they aren't infectous...
Posted by: JeffS

Re: What is your favorite meltdown scenario? - 23/10/2005 04:17

Quote:
You forgot "Seven-year tribulation followed by earth's destruction by fire"


Quote:
Although the "Other horsemen" options does partially cover the former. I voted that one.
Strangely, my thoughts and vote were the same!
Posted by: Roger

Re: What is your favorite meltdown scenario? - 23/10/2005 08:44

Quote:
If you want to worry, you've got to think about disease


See, I don't think you do. Something would have to be extremely virulent to wipe out the whole of the human race. Even if H5N1 turns out to be infectious among humans, it's only going to depopulate the planet by between 25% and 50%. We'll bounce back from that.

I went for global warming. I assumed that this covered other general environmental issues -- pollution, e.g.
Posted by: canuckInOR

Re: What is your favorite meltdown scenario? - 23/10/2005 16:10

Quote:
Even if H5N1 turns out to be infectious among humans, it's only going to depopulate the planet by between 25% and 50%.

You got that right. Even the nasty flu thing that wiped out so much of the population back in 19whatever, only managed to do about that much damage. Fast forward a several decades, and we have much, much better scientific and medical technology capable of solving/reducing the problem before it can even do that much. I went with global warming, as well, but in retrospect, I should have gone with pollution, since pollution is one of the main causes of global warming, but pollution also accounts for destruction of so much of our fresh water sources, heavy metal contaminants in our food supply, and etc.

The real meltdown scenario is the greedy politicians that don't avert course when any of the choices on the list are on the forseeable horizon.
Posted by: peter

Re: What is your favorite meltdown scenario? - 23/10/2005 16:51

Ultimately I think the most likely human extinction scenario is depletion of Earth's natural resources such that by the time we're technologically able to send a viable colony to a new planet, we haven't got the resources left to do so. That would come under "overpopulation", I guess. None of the other meltdowns, while horrific, sound to me like extinction events.

Peter
Posted by: pgrzelak

Re: What is your favorite meltdown scenario? - 23/10/2005 17:04

Well, it doesn't really need to extinguish all human life. It is actually very difficult to completely wipe out every human on the planet. But even if you were to knock out about 25%, just think of the chaos and anarchy that would ensue, and what it would do to civilization as we understand it today.
Posted by: Roger

Re: What is your favorite meltdown scenario? - 24/10/2005 08:42

Quote:
But even if you were to knock out about 25%, just think of the chaos and anarchy that would ensue


Depends which 25%.

I think that the effects would be different if 1-in-4 people died, spread evenly across the planet, by age, race, weight, prosperity, education, etc.; as opposed to simply nominating (e.g.) Western Europe (is that 25% of the population?) and saying goodbye to everyone who lives there.
Posted by: thinfourth2

Re: What is your favorite meltdown scenario? - 24/10/2005 09:19

The continuing dumbing down of the planet continues as demonstrated by the popularity of reality TV and we all loose the ability to breath through sheer stupidity.
Posted by: tanstaafl.

Re: What is your favorite meltdown scenario? - 25/10/2005 00:32

I chose "Economic Meltdown", not because it is the precursor of the others, but because it is the only choice that refers to an absolutely inevitable event.

We are headed for a global economic trainwreck that will make 1929 seem mild by comparison. If you think the government or any other entity can prevent it, you are living in a dream world. The bridge is already out and it is too late to stop the train.

And that's my optimistic scenario. Give just a little bit of thought to a tax base shrunk into non-existance, the failure of government services (does "Police" come to mind) and the fact that there are actually more guns in this country than there are people... Think Beirut in the 1980s.

And don't think you're safe because you don't live in the US. Economically speaking, when America sneezes the whole world catches cold.

tanstaafl.
Posted by: FireFox31

Re: What is your favorite meltdown scenario? - 25/10/2005 00:59

Quote:
as demonstrated by the popularity of reality TV

And demonstrated by the fact that the NJ Weedman is running for state governor.
Posted by: DWallach

Re: What is your favorite meltdown scenario? - 25/10/2005 11:26

Quote:
You got that right. Even the nasty flu thing that wiped out so much of the population back in 19whatever, only managed to do about that much damage. Fast forward a several decades, and we have much, much better scientific and medical technology

But we also have a much, much more mobile population. In the 1910's, there wasn't much in the way of an airline industry. People traveled by train or boat and, for the most part, really didn't travel much at all. That made containment / quarantines much easier. Today, a similarly virulent bug could spread far and wide before anybody noticed it (particularly if it has a long incubation period).

At least for H5N1, there is one possible treatment, Tamiflu, but there isn't nearly enough supply of it and the company who holds the patent is being overlay protective of its rights. Taiwan has already announced that it's going to ignore the patent. Whether Tamiflu could be available in sufficient quantities to have any effect on H5N1 is an open question, as is whether H5N1 would be truly nasty or not. For all we really know, it may just manifest itself as a standard winter cold for large chunks of the population. The BBC has a nice FAQ on the topic.